Friday 15 August 2014

Premier League predictions: Lawro v Liam Fray of The Courteeners

Premier League predictions: The Courteeners frontman Liam FrayManchester United fan Fray, a former Old Trafford ball-boy who went to the same school as United legend Paul Scholes, is tipping his side to get off to a winning start against Swansea in Louis van Gaal's first competitive game as manager.
You can see all of Liam's predictions inFootball Focus at 12:10 BST on Saturday on Sportmasta One and the BBC Sport website (in the UK).
The Courteeners, whose song 'Not 19 Forever' was used by United to mark their 20th league title in 2013, release their fourth album, 'Concrete Love' on 18 August.

Premier League predictions

ResultLawroLiam
SATURDAY
Man Utd v Swansea
x-x
2-0
3-0
Leicester v Everton
x-x
1-1
1-2
QPR v Hull
x-x
1-0
2-2
Stoke v Aston Villa
x-x
2-0
1-0
West Brom v Sunderland
x-x
1-1
1-1
West Ham v Tottenham
x-x
1-1
1-2
Arsenal v Crystal Palace
x-x
2-0
3-0
SUNDAY
Liverpool v Southampton
x-x
2-0
3-0
Newcastle v Man City
x-x
1-2
0-2
MONDAY
Burnley v Chelsea
x-x
0-2
1-3
A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth ONE point. Getting the exact score correct earns THREE points.
You can see how all the guests from last season fared in the scoreboard at the bottom of the page, plus the final table showing how the 2013-14 Premier League would have looked if all of Lawro's predictions were correct.

LAWRO'S PREDICTIONS

All kick-offs at 15:00 BST unless otherwise stated.

SATURDAY

Manchester United v Swansea

Man Utd v Swansea (12:45 BST)

Swansea could not have been given a more difficult fixture to start the season because the Manchester United fans will raise the roof to welcome their new manager Louis van Gaal.
They are obviously hoping that he is the man who can shunt them back into the Champions League places and even help them challenge for the title.
People are getting a bit carried away there - I don't see either happening for them this season.
Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal
Van Gaal has inherited a United team that finished seventh in the Premier League last season
Continue reading the main story
There is still a lot of work to be done to United's squad to turn them back into contenders
But credit to Van Gaal, because he has spotted straight away that Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney, playing up through the middle and off each other, is a win-win situation that gets the best out of both of his best players.
There is still a lot of work to be done to his squad, though, to turn them back into contenders.
Van Gaal would like a right-sided wing-back to go with the left-sided one he has bought in Luke Shaw, and a centre-back is on his shopping list as well.
But, on Saturday, what he has already got will be enough to get the win the United fans want.
They are up against a Swansea side who have made a lot of changes over the summer.
Their manager Garry Monk will be bedding a lot of players in and, after his honeymoon period at the end of last season, this is when the real work starts for him.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Liam's prediction: 3-0
Leicester v Everton

Leicester v Everton

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Leicester are aiming to be top of the bottom six
Leicester have been quite clever in the way they have prepared for their first season back in the top flight since 2003-04.
The Foxes have not gone on a mad spending spree and I think they are being very pragmatic and aiming to finish top of the bottom six.
As well as their new Argentine striker Leonardo Ulloa, they possess a goal threat in Jamie Vardy and David Nugent, and I like the fact they have kept hold of a lot of players who got them promoted.
From what I saw of them last season, the Foxes had real pace and width going forward and I think Nigel Pearson is going to stick with that approach.
Everton striker Romelu Lukaku
Lukaku scored 15 goals in 31 league games for Everton last season
It will be interesting to see how Everton line up. I like the look of their new Bosnian midfielder Muhamed Besic and having Darron Gibson, Bryan Oviedo and, eventually, Arouna Kone back fit will be a boost too.

Is Lukaku good value?

Everton have paid an awful lot of money to sign Romelu Lukaku permanently. He did very well for them on loan from Chelsea last season but I don't think he has the touch of a £28m player. Still, at 21, he can only get better I suppose.
To get the best out of him, I think Everton's aim has to be to get the ball up to him as early as possible, where the play is not too congested. If you can get him in behind the opposition, that is where he is at his best and where he can do some damage.
Everton finished fifth last season and I think they will be very competitive near the top of the table again this time around.
Later on in the season this would be the type of game the Toffees might expect to win, but not on Saturday.
I think it will be a case of an established Premier League team travelling to a newly promoted side who are full of confidence right at the start of the season. Everton will find it more difficult.
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Liam's prediction: 1-2
QPR v Hull

QPR v Hull

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Out of all of Hull's new signings, the one to look out for is Harry Maguire
Queens Park Rangers' appointment of Glenn Hoddle as first-team coach suggests they are thinking of playing in a 3-5-2 formation to protect Rio Ferdinand's lack of pace at the back. Hoddle has played with three centre-backs a lot in the past.
We will find out if that is the case at the weekend, and I will also be very interested to see whether Loic Remy is picked up front after the collapse of his move to Liverpool earlier in the summer.
Other teams are still being linked with him but if Remy ends up staying then he could be a key player for Rangers - and I think he would have been a very useful addition at Anfield.
Hull have been busy in the transfer market over the summer and, with Jake Livermore signing permanently and Robert Snodgrass and Tom Ince both arriving, they will again be strong in midfield.
Out of all their new signings, however, the one to look out for is a 21-year-old defender. I saw a lot of Harry Maguire when he was playing for Sheffield United in League One last season and he was head and shoulders above anyone else as a centre-back.
New Hull City defender Harry Maguire
Harry Maguire impressed Lawro when he was playing in League One last season
Maguire brings the ball out of defence, which will be very useful if Hull are also going to play 3-5-2, which they did occasionally last year.

How will the newly promoted teams do?

I think QPR have got the best chance of all the promoted teams of staying up. Leicester are going to have to be able to scrap, and are probably going to spend most of the season in the bottom six, while Burnley face the biggest struggle of all.
But I think all three teams know the sort of season that is ahead of them and they will be ready for it.
How the promoted teams did last season: Crystal Palace (11th), Hull City (16th), Cardiff City (20th)
I see Hull having another decent season but am backing QPR to be the newly promoted side to get a win on the opening weekend. Like Leicester, they will be full of confidence.
Lawro's prediction: 1-0
Liam's prediction: 2-2
Stoke v Aston Villa

Stoke v Aston Villa

Stoke look in good shape - I like their summer signings, especially striker Bojan Krkic from Barcelona.
Stoke striker Bojan Krkic celebrates a goal against Real Betis in pre-season with Stephen Ireland
Bojan Krkic scored three goals for Stoke during pre-season
This might be the season where Bojan blossoms, because Mark Hughes will make sure he gets a lot of service, and he will be their danger man against Aston Villa.
Continue reading the main story
Villa fans are probably only wondering one thing - when will Christian Benteke be fit?
I don't think Hughes is finished yet, either, because I am told he is trying to sign Norwich midfielder Nathan Redmond before the end of August.
The Potters have had a really positive summer in the transfer market and should get another top-half finish but neither can be said for Villa, who have spent very little and face another struggle.
Roy Keane will make a difference as assistant manager but Villa fans are probably only wondering one thing - when will Christian Benteke be fit?
Villa boss Paul Lambert is probably thinking the same. The supporters will be on his back straight away unless Villa make a good start and, without Benteke, that is a very big ask.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Liam's prediction: 1-0
West Brom v Sunderland

West Brom v Sunderland

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The Baggies face another difficult campaign
I know new West Brom boss Alan Irvine from his time at Preston and he is an extremely good coach, who works his players hard on the training ground.
Even so, the Baggies face another difficult campaign after finishing 17th last season.
Joleon Lescott is struggling to be fit to face Sunderland but he is a good defensive signing and, like Manchester United, QPR and Hull, West Brom are a team that could play with three centre-backs.
You might see Lescott and Gareth McAuley playing with Jonas Olsson when they are all fit.
But Irvine really needs his new £10m centre-forward Brown Ideye to be a hit because the Baggies struggled for goals last season and they cannot afford for that to be a problem again.

Rodwell must turn his career around

Jack Rodwell has got all the ability in the world but he has hardly played any football since joining Manchester City from Everton in 2012. It is all very well him saying "I was fit and available and I could have played in a lot more games" but, in reality, he was not anywhere near the City team.
Unfortunately for Rodwell, his career has not just stalled, it has actually gone backwards. He really needs a good season to turn things round.
Sunderland are still pushing to sign Fabio Borini permanently from Liverpool to ensure they do not have problems up front again too.
But what helps them look stronger in that department is that Steven Fletcher is going to be fit for the start of the season, and he has already struck up a partnership with Connor Wickham over the summer.
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Liam's prediction: 1-1
West Ham v Tottenham

West Ham v Tottenham

I find it a little bit strange that West Ham's owners have told manager Sam Allardyce that they want to see more entertaining football this season, because that has put him under pressure already.
Good football or not, Allardyce knows that if he makes a bad start to the season, they will be chasing him out.
West Ham manager Sam Allardyce
After winning promotion in 2012, Allardyce took West Ham to 10th in 2013 and 13th last season
Andy Carroll's latest injury won't help matters but it should not surprise anybody - I think his problem is as fundamental as the top half of his body being too heavy for the bottom half.

What West Ham want

What I think West Ham's owners want is for their team to pose a real attacking threat, especially away from home. They want that progression in their third season in the top flight but, for Sam Allardyce, it will be a very difficult thing to provide.
Allardyce is a manager who sets up his team to be strong defensively and a threat from set-pieces. Now he is going to have to almost reinvent himself as a manager, after changing his West Ham team around over the summer. That is going to cause him a lot of problems.
Tottenham, meanwhile, are starting the season with another new manager but I think Mauricio Pochettino will prove a successful appointment.
Spurs are looking at a top-six finish again and I can see Pochettino playing the same type of pressing football he did at Southampton to get it.
Pochettino is very good at the tactical side of the game and he also improved a lot of players that were under him at Southampton.
If he improves what he has got at Tottenham, then they will have a very good season. My only concern for them at the moment is where the goals are going to come from.
Lawro's prediction: 1-1
Liam's prediction: 1-2
Arsenal v Crystal Palace

Arsenal v Crystal Palace (17:30 BST)

Continue reading the main story
Looking at the depth of their squad, there is no reason why Arsenal should not be challenging for the title
Arsenal have bought well over the summer and will be looking to hit the ground running.
With Alex Sanchez, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and, very soon, a fit-again Theo Walcott, they have players who can burst in behind opposition defenders to give them the penetration they lacked last season.
On a bad day, the Gunners will still be vulnerable defensively but,looking at the depth of their squad, there is no reason they should not be challenging for the title.
Tony Pulis did a fantastic job for Crystal Palace last season and his target will be mid-table again this time.
He is a fantastic man-manager who challenges his players every day but, to be as competitive again, they will need further signings.
They will not make it easy for Arsenal but this game has 'home win' written all over it.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Liam's prediction: 3-0

SUNDAY

Liverpool v Southampton

Liverpool v Southampton (13:30 BST)

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Liverpool have still not answered the question of how on earth they are going to replace Suarez's goals
Southampton went to Liverpool and beat them 1-0 early last seasonbut, for obvious reasons, they will take a very different team to Anfield on Sunday.
Three players who were part of that Saints side are at Liverpool now, but Dejan Lovren might be the only one who starts against his former club. Adam Lallana is not fit and Rickie Lambert will probably have to settle for a place on the bench.
Southampton's business plan seems to be to bring players in, train them up and sell them on, which is great when it works but it is a big ask to do it again and again.
Liverpool have actually bought very well after selling Luis Suarez to Barcelona but only up to a point because they have still not answered the question of how on earth they are going to replace Suarez's goals - not just the quantity but also the quality of his strikes.
Luis Suarez scored 31 goals and made 12 assists for Liverpool in the Premier League last season
Luis Suarez scored 31 goals and made 12 assists for Liverpool in the Premier League last season
We know why they are still looking for reinforcements, because if Daniel Sturridge gets injured they will not have an out-and-out striker with any pace.
In the meantime, I think they will have too much for Saints.
But just because Liverpool now have even more options in other attacking positions does not make them as strong as when they had Suarez in their team.
Without him, it will be harder for them to finish in the top four this season.
Lawro's prediction: 2-0
Liam's prediction: 3-0
Newcastle v Man City

Newcastle v Man City (16:00 BST)

Manchester City struggled at the back in their Community Shield defeat by Arsenal on Sunday and, for me, their captain Vincent Kompany has to come into the side at St James' Park alongside new defensive signing Eliaquim Mangala.
Continue reading the main story
Newcastle have made some interesting summer signings to add a bit more depth to their side
Kompany is not injured and it is unlikely he has lost much fitness over the summer since the World Cup. If he is available, why not play him?
Whoever is in their defence, I still think City should win this game though. Last season's champions have more match-winners in their squad and Newcastle will be bedding a few players in.
The Magpies have made some interesting summer signings to add a bit more depth to their side.
Their boss Alan Pardew says he has far more attacking options, which he thinks should equate to more goals than last season when Loic Remy seemed to be their only player capable of scoring.
But just like with Liverpool without Luis Suarez, I am not sure that is necessarily the case.
Lawro's prediction: 1-2
Liam's prediction: 0-2

MONDAY

Burnley v Chelsea

Burnley v Chelsea (20:00 BST)

I am at Turf Moor on Monday for BBC Radio 5 live and I cannot wait. I love the thought of Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho and his team playing in the Ribble Valley.
Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho
Lawro is backing Mourinho to win his third Premier League title with Chelsea this season
The Clarets are not glamorous but they are not daft either - they know they not going to attract top foreign players to Turf Moor and it would make no financial sense to spend £10m on a signing.
Continue reading the main story
I don't think there will be a team in the Premier League who will show more application and effort than Burnley
Their manager Sean Dyche's approach to trying to stay in the Premier League is to is keep the nucleus of his side that won promotion together, and they will have a right go at staying up.
Yes, they will lose some games and, yes, they will take some beatings but in terms of application and effort they will not be lacking.
In fact I don't think there will be a team in the Premier League who will show more of either. The fans at Turf Moor will play a big part too.
I remember Burnley beating Manchester United in their first home game at the start of their last season in the top flight, in 2009, and the atmosphere was amazing.
Turf Moor will be rocking again on Monday but what will stop them doing something similar to Chelsea on Monday is that I think they are playing the team that will go on to win the league title.
Lawro's prediction: 0-2
Liam's prediction: 1-3
Lawro was speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan.

HOW DID LAWRO DO LAST SEASON?

SCOREFINAL GUEST LEADERBOARD
12
George Groves, Nicky Wire
11
Zac Efron, Susanna Reid, Tim Key
10
Usain Bolt
9
Charlotte Green, Camp Bastion troops
7.68
Lawro (average after 38 weeks)
7
Danny John-Jules, Steve Wilson
6
Katy B, John Bishop, Kevin Clifton, Gaz Coombes, Greg James, Alistair McGowan, Joe Montana, Simon Neil, Alan Shearer, Woody
5
Geraint Thomas, Sam Tomkins, The National
4
David Baddiel, David Cameron, Fatboy Slim, Guy Mowbray, Jason Sudeikis, Eliza Doolittle
3
Robert De Niro, Sylvester Stallone, Kaiser Chiefs
2
Sam Bailey, Cal Crutchlow, Ken Doherty, Gail Emms, Jim Kerr, David Schneider
1
Michael Palin, Vic Reeves
0
Josh Franceschi
Lawro's best score: 16 points (week 21 v Robert De Niro and Sylvester Stallone)
Lawro's worst score: 3 points (week 26 v Geraint Thomas)
BBC Sport expert Mark Lawrenson

ARROWS DENOTE DIFFERENCE TO FINAL STANDINGS IN REAL 2013-14 TABLE

POSTEAMPWDLPTSDIFF+/-
1.
Man City
38
33
5
0
104
Side arrow
0
2.
Chelsea
38
28
7
3
91
Up arrow
+1
3.
Man Utd
38
26
8
4
86
Up arrow
+4
4.
Liverpool
38
25
10
3
83
Down arrow
-2
5.
Arsenal
38
21
13
4
76
Down arrow
-1
6.
Tottenham
38
19
7
12
64
Side arrow
0
7.
Southampton
38
16
10
12
58
Up arrow
+1
8.
Everton
38
13
13
12
52
Down arrow
-3
9.
Stoke
38
13
8
17
47
Side arrow
0
10.
Swansea
38
11
10
17
43
Up arrow
+2
11.
Aston Villa
38
9
13
16
40
Up arrow
+4
12.
Fulham
38
10
10
18
40
Up arrow
+7
13.
West Brom
38
10
9
19
39
Up arrow
+4
14.
Newcastle
38
9
11
18
38
Down arrow
-4
15.
Crystal Palace
38
9
11
18
38
Down arrow
-4
16.
Norwich
38
10
8
20
38
Up arrow
+2
17.
West Ham
38
9
9
20
36
Down arrow
-4
18.
Hull City
38
7
10
21
31
Down arrow
-2
19.
Sunderland
38
6
9
23
27
Down arrow
-5
20.
Cardiff
38
1
12
25
15
Side arrow
0

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