Sunday, 11 October 2015

Ivanovic, Matic, Fabregas and Hazard among Chelsea strugglers

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Chelsea had only lost one home league game in more than five seasons under Jose Mourinho; now they have lost two of the last three. They had only conceded 15 league goals in 38 games when his 2004-05 side became champions but have conceded 17 in eight matches already in the current campaign. They had 22 points at this stage 12 months ago, but just eight now.
The statistics are extraordinary -- but what are the reasons for this remarkable decline?
Matic fails to shield defence
Nemanja Matic established a reputation as the foremost defensive midfielder in England last season but he has since lost his place in the Chelsea team. He was a substitute in the last two matches -- against Porto and Southampton -- and suffered the ultimate insult when he was taken off as a sub during Saints' 3-1 win at Stamford Bridge.
Matic is making as many tackles as he did last season but the problem is perhaps where he is making them. His heat map for the league campaign illustrates that some are deep in the opposition half, a consequence of his attempt to press high, and some near either touchline, which indicates he is being dragged out of position because neither full-back is being shielded effectively enough.
Too few are in the defensive midfielder's usual sphere of influence, directly in front of his centre-backs and in his own half. Matic's personal dip in form, coupled with Cesc Fabregas' defensive deficiencies, has allowed a variety of No. 10s to thrive, from Manchester City's David Silva to Southampton's Sadio Mane.
A further sign of his slump in form is that he is making far fewer clearances. The Serb made 129 last season at an average of 3.6 per game, compared to just 11 now; an average of 1.4 per match.
Ivanovic exposed
Branislav Ivanovic was the Premier League's outstanding right-back last season but his poor form this year has prompted questions as to why he has not been dropped. The tone was set on the opening day when he was tormented by Swansea's electric winger Jefferson Montero.
The Ecuadorian's touch map from August's 2-2 draw shows how often Swansea were able to isolate the winger against Ivanovic in the final third. The following week, Manchester City used the rapid Raheem Sterling, a little further infield than Montero, but with left-back Aleksandar Kolarov overlapping outside him. Later that month, Crystal Palace deployed the quick, strong left-winger Bakary Sako against Ivanovic.
A further factor in his troubles is that Willian, who normally played ahead of him, has begun just two of the eight league games (against Swansea and Southampton) as a right-winger. Pedro has not tracked back as much, meaning Ivanovic has been left alone against one, or even two opponents, just when he looks least capable of coping.
Potent opponents
With Ivanovic exposed, Matic ineffective and Chelsea's players making more individual errors, opponents are finding it easier to play against Mourinho's team. Southampton's performance last week is illustrative.
Whereas Chelsea used to be better at snuffing out counterattacks than anyone else, Southampton only had 40 percent of possession but used it effectively. They had 13 shots, scoring from three. Then look at where those attempts came from: central areas, 10 of them within 25 yards. These were not ludicrously ambitious shots from long range or acute angles. Many were from precisely the area a defensive midfielder should patrol, but Matic only had played 28 minutes, spending the first half on the bench and being replaced after being caught out of position when Southampton scored their third.
Of nine "key passes," three came from left winger Dusan Tadic -- in other words, Ivanovic's man -- and three from the No. 10 Mane, who should have been picked up first by John Obi Mikel and then by Matic.
Fabregas stops creating
Fabregas had nine assists from eight league matches this time last year but just one this time around. While Kurt Zouma headed in his free kick to open the scoring in the 2-0 home win against Arsenal, Fabregas is yet to fashion a goal in open play. Nor does he have a "second assist" -- in other words, a pass to the player who supplied the final ball.
That means one of two things: either others are not taking the chances he has provided or Chelsea's creator-in-chief is not being creative enough. It looks like the latter. So far Fabregas has only fashioned three of what are termed "big chances." One was taken by Zouma, the other two missed by Pedro. Does Fabregas merit a place in the team?
Hazard stops scoring
If Fabregas has stopped creating, Eden Hazard has stopped scoring. The Belgian was named Footballer of the Year last season and ended the campaign with 14 goals and nine assists in the league. So far he has no goals and two assists.
He averaged more than two shots a game last season (78 in 38 matches) with almost one per game on target (33 in 38).
Every statistic is down. So far, he has had 12 attempts in eight games, with only four on target. As the shot map shows, all were in the middle of the goal, making them easier to save. As for those two assists, one was for a spectacular long-range goal by Ramires at Newcastle, which owed rather less to the pass.
The other was for Pedro's debut strike at West Brom. Yet -- and this obviously depends upon the definition of a "big chance" -- according to those who compile the statistics, Hazard is yet to fashion one this season, while others are making too few for him.

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